Universal Basic Income and Time

Technology is going to change the way we work. In the research group that I work in, we have two Baxter robots. These humanoid robots are designed to effectively replace human workers in low-skill manual tasks, particularly in industrial environments. They’ve already been put in some factories in the US, particularly in small businesses. Earlier this year, researchers at Columbia University showed how a Baxter robot combined with machine learning could iron clothes. I published a paper earlier this year where Baxter could play chess against a human. Every day more applications are being revealed. These robots cost about US$25,000, which sounds like a lot until you consider that it’s roughly one year’s salary for a low-skilled worker. The robot doesn’t need to rest, it doesn’t get sick, it doesn’t need holiday pay, and generally achieves a lower error rate than a bored human doing repetitive tasks all day.

Automation, industrial or otherwise, is treated like the bane of the low-skilled worker. For researchers, simple tasks are the easiest place to start, and the technology already exists to make hundreds of types of jobs redundant – the main barrier is that it’s currently economically unviable to implement. The fear is that introducing this technology will cause mass unemployment and widening inequality. The traditional economic response to this is usually “well people can just upskill”, which is fine as a principle but not practical for many people. Upskilling requires education, education costs time and money, and not everyone has access to the necessary resources or support to “just upskill”. Even when everyone does upskill, there may not be enough jobs for all the upskilled people – just ask the legal industry.

The Universal Basic Income (UBI) seems like an attractive option to help alleviate the pressures on all people as their jobs become more uncertain and insecure. If we can provide every person in the country with a base level of income from the government sufficient for some minimum standard of living, then work is no longer a necessity for survival, but something that we do because we want to. We become more incentivised to find fulfilling work, not just work with sufficient income. Individuals become willing to take larger risks such as starting up small businesses or moving into unpaid education or volunteer work because the UBI safety net can catch them if they fail. Social welfare becomes a lot simpler, and the government doesn’t need to somewhat arbitrarily decide who is deserving of a benefit and who isn’t. I don’t necessarily agree that the UBI is the correct or only answer, but I accept that the UBI is one potential solution to address technological unemployment. However, if we are going to debate the merits of having a UBI we need to consider an important point.

My main concern with a UBI as a solution to technological unemployment is the nature of time. People losing their jobs due to advancements in technology happens gradually and in small pockets of society. In the past, this has been slow enough that humans have generally been able to adapt. When I say slow, I mean over the course of years or decades. Artisan weavers were replaced by mechanised looms, and while some people were hurt by losing their jobs, there was no broader societal upset. More recently, retail cashiers have been replaced by self-service checkouts, but this isn’t necessarily seen as a direct cause of rising unemployment. Most of these changes have been small in scale because technology doesn’t change jobs on a large scale overnight – the human element ensures that technology is introduced slowly and cautiously. Business owners are conservative, and don’t like risking the future of their businesses on some technological fad that might be outdated within six months. Technological unemployment is a continuous process, not discrete.

In most proposals for UBIs, the policy change would have to be instantaneous. One day, everyone is paying a certain level of tax and getting nothing (or a benefit), the next day new legislation kicks in and suddenly everyone is paying a different level of tax and getting a $11,000 a year. This implies that we have to identify some threshold where we say “okay, enough people have lost their jobs to technology, the UBI is needed now.” In the meantime, all the people below that threshold who have already lost their jobs will suffer. Perhaps we’ve already started to see this, with rising homelessness, rising inequality, and rising job volatility. When we apply utilitarian macroeconomics and tax policies, individuals fall through the cracks all too easily. We either have to wait for the problem to worsen and for some tipping point to happen, or bring in the policy too early and encounter unnecessary costs.

So perhaps, if we are going to have a UBI, what we need is unfortunately complicated – a gradual, slow increase of the UBI to match the gradual, slow changes to the labour market. Any policy implementation has to be discrete, putting it at odds with the continuous nature of technological unemployment, but at least making many small steps might be better than making one big step. So rather than jumping straight to $200 a week per person (and bankrupting the government), maybe we need to start at $200 a month or every two months. It’s not enough to live on, but it’s enough to start sending signals to society that the way we think about work and labour is going to change. Make it opt-in too so that people have to actively participate and understand what’s happening in order to benefit. We’d still have to initially keep some forms of social welfare benefits like jobseeker support (unemployment benefit) to help people transition between jobs (perhaps the amounts paid out for benefits can decrease as the UBI level increases). But over time, as technology makes our society more wealthy and prosperous, the UBI can increase sustainably to a level that supports all people in our country. It may feel like small drops in a bucket, but maybe that’s exactly what we need rather than pouring a jug of water into the bucket and watching it overflow.

Some would argue that this is difficult to do because it increases compliance costs, it becomes harder to educate people how this scheme works, and it become susceptible to over-reactions to short-term fluctuations rather than long-term trends. For some reason, when it comes to tax policy or social welfare policy we wait for ages and ages for changes to happen because we don’t want to confuse people by changing it too often. What I’m advocating for is a number of small changes more frequently, rather than one big change and then waiting a long time to revisit it. We already do this with the Official Cash Rate – we recognise that it’s important that for the Reserve Bank to react to the changing macroeconomic environment eight times a year rather than just once a year. Why shouldn’t we also be reacting to the changing labour market in the same way?

Of course, any movement towards a UBI requires a substantial change in how the government raises revenue too, whether that includes a true capital-gains tax on all assets, changing the tax brackets to increase the contributions of the super-rich, and/or creating incentives for multinationals to keep their money in New Zealand and pay tax rather than taking the profits overseas. The government’s expenditures would have to change too, with a hard look at superannuation, tariffs and subsidies, and social welfare more broadly too. But each of these policy changes should stand on its own merits independently, as well as together when considered in context. We can talk about whether a UBI makes sense and how to best implement it first, so that it can become a key plank of a model for how government can support society in uncertain times.

Drivers of the Housing Crisis

The Problem
Humans seek security and safety in shelter, supporting social, psychological, and economic benefits. Those without shelter are left exposed to weather, illness, and exploitation. Humans find value in shelter, and therefore markets exist to buy and sell the homes that provide that shelter.

In a free market economy, the forces of supply and demand dominate. According to Statistics New Zealand data, the number of dwellings in Auckland has increased by 30% in the last 20 years. The Auckland population has increased by 43% in the same time period. The Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment estimates that there is now a cumulative shortage of at least 25,000 dwellings in Auckland. Others estimate this to be larger, with the Productivity Commission estimating a shortage of 60,000 homes by 2020. Simply put, there aren’t enough new houses for new people to live in.

As a result, land prices have more than quadrupled over the last 25 years, and house prices (after inflation) have trebled in the same time period. The average house price is set to exceed $1 million in the next 12 months; this has already occurred in North and East Auckland and in some city fringe areas. The property-price-to-median-income ratio in Auckland has reached nine; the rule of thumb is that this ratio should not exceed three (although there are few big cities where this is true).

This exposes Auckland to two key risks:

  1. long-term societal imbalance as the gap between homeowners and renters increases due to growing property wealth from capital gains
  2. potential sudden burst of the housing bubble with collapsing property prices, impacting the wider economy, and disproportionately affecting the less wealthy

Owning housing has become inaccessible for a large proportion of the population, forcing them to rent while transferring wealth to existing homeowners. This disproportionately affects young people, with economist Shamubeel Eaqub coining the term “Generation Rent”. The high cost of housing keeps families in a cycle of poverty, with housing costs leaving insufficient funds for other basic needs, or in some cases insufficient funds for housing leaving families homeless. Widening inequality and increasing poverty is a key predictor of falling happiness within a society.

The Drivers
Stable pricing is predicated on a balance between supply and demand. Political parties, independent analysts, and media pundits all have differing opinions on whether the cause of the Auckland housing crisis is on the supply-side or the demand-side; in reality, it is likely attributable to both. Here are twelve drivers from both sides – some are from the Auckland Council Chief Economist, some are from the Productivity Commission, and some are from my own analysis.

  1. High net migration into Auckland, reflecting New Zealand’s current economic strength relative to Australia and Europe, as well as a booming education sector targeting international students. In 2015, net migration into Auckland was at least 30,000. Note that net migration is both more people coming into Auckland, and fewer people leaving. This is most apparent to/from Australia; a few years ago New Zealand was (net) losing 40,000 people a year to Australia, last year we (net) gained 1,600. More stats available at TransportBlog.
  2. Historically low interest rates, both worldwide and in New Zealand, reflecting efforts by central banks to stimulate their economies to avoid the long-term impacts of the Global Financial Crisis. In 2008 the OCR was at 8.25%; now it is at 2%. With low interest rates, people are more incentivised to borrow (and spend). More stats available from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Increasing willingness by banks to fund household lending, based on international lending standards viewing mortgages as “safe lending” that are less risky than corporate lending. Household debt is now at over 160% of nominal disposable annual income. It’s set to keep going up as interest rates keep falling. More analysis available from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. A demographic shift towards smaller households, with smaller family units and an aging population. In 2013, almost half (48%) of all households in Auckland had only one or two people. More stats from Auckland Council and the New Zealand Initiative.
  5. Council constraints on the supply and usage of land in Auckland, leading to artificially low housing density that is inconsistent with density patterns in other large cities internationally. Auckland has a pretty uniform population density of 32 people per hectare beyond 2km out of the city centre; in New York it’s 100 people per hectare at 2km, in Barcelona it’s over 300 – it takes over 20km for population densities there to match Auckland levels. More stats from New York University/NZ Treasury.
  6. Vocal opposition to intensification by existing ratepayers (synonymous with homeowners), expressing concerns about compromising standards of living and reducing property values. Councils and governments are (arguably) democratic and dominated by older and wealthier segments of the population. It is largely in their capitalistic self-interests for house prices to rise, increasing their personal wealth. The Productivity Commission has identified this as a “democratic deficit” due to the disproportionate influence of homeowners in local council elections and consultations. More on this from Bernard Hickey (and everyone else talking about NIMBYs).
  7. Onerous and uncertain resource management requirements and building consent processes, disincentivising new developments and increasing compliance costs. It can be very risky for new developers, because they can invest millions of dollars into large-scale development, only to be blocked after a few years by rejected consents.
  8. Skills and labour shortages in the construction industry, stemming from unattractive low wages and punitive liability rules. New Zealand has maintained a net deficit of construction workers for the last 30 years. More analysis from Statistics New Zealand.
  9. Speculative investment, with foreign and domestic investors accounting for 43% of purchases, driven by tax-free treatment of capital gains attracting investors towards New Zealand housing. The exact proportion of foreign vs. domestic (and who counts as foreign and who counts as domestic) is controversial and uncertain. More stats from CoreLogic/Auckland Council (section 3.2.7).
  10. Auckland Council’s extremely high debt levels, currently at 275% of revenues (annual borrowing costs are roughly 12% of revenues), negatively impacting the Council’s ability to build the necessary electricity, water, and roading infrastructure to support new dwellings. More stats from Auckland Council.
  11. The Productivity Commission estimates that the average floor size of new dwellings has increased by more than 50% since 1989, requiring more land in order to house the same number of people. More stats from Productivity Commission (section 3.3).
  12. The “leaky homes” crisis of the late 90s leading to negative perceptions towards the construction industry and causing ongoing costs to affected families and local councils. This has also made policy-makers conservative, erring on the side of caution and stringency when it comes to RMA and related reform.

A major challenge is the inelasticity of housing supply – it takes both a long time and a lot of money to build housing and related infrastructure. This limits the responsiveness of housing supply to comparatively fast changes in housing demand, creating the opportunity for imbalances to snowball into crises. This also creates the potential for overcorrection, due to the slow response of policy outcomes.

The Conclusion
Any policy that only addresses one of these drivers will not resolve the housing crisis. A combination of policies from both central and local government is required in order to rebalance supply and demand, or at least reduce the size of the currently widening gap. Perhaps this has already been happening – there have been a number of actions taken in the last few years, and it will take many more years for the effects of those actions to be seen in the housing market. We can only wait for the market to respond.

Power to the tenants: re-claiming the rental market

By Ellipsister (Co-Ed.)

The housing crisis does not stop at home ownership. It is about rents. It is about landlords. And it is about tenants.

Like many in my generation, I am a serial renter. In fact, we (my whānau) currently pay rent in two places because I commute between Auckland and Wellington. Although, I only pay rent for a room in Wellington, and not an entire house. That I am in a position to commute is a privilege that very few others can afford. I get that. However, despite my privilege, my experience and the similar experiences of others is not irrelevant simply because of the wider reaching social impacts of the housing crisis on low-income families and earners. We need to get on the same page. The reality is that it is situations like mine – those of middle income that contribute to homelessness and not in the way you might think.

 The spectrum

Talk of the housing spectrum from homelessness to home ownership is common in policy circles. But it is flawed. The spectrum is not linear and treating it as such perpetuates the problem. A major assumption from policymakers and political parties alike is that if we just build more houses (supply) and make finance more readily available to prospective buyers then bingo! Everyone will have a home. We just have to look to the US sub-prime lending that led to the 2008 GFC to see the horrible consequences of that kind of an initiative. We need to understand that the housing crisis is as much about rules and the distribution of power, as it is about supply and finance.

 The middle

In the past, the housing cycle saw people move into their own homes, or upgrade their rentals as their incomes increased creating financial security. The housing crisis that began in Auckland and its cancerous spread to other regions has created a short circuit in that cycle. For my generation, only those people whose parents can help can continue on that cycle. The rest of us languish in dilapidating properties, unable to save for our own homes due to the excessive rental prices we pay, unable to upgrade to suitable rentals because we are priced out of the next rung on the ladder, and often unwilling to move because value for money properties no longer exist. This means that we – the middle-income earners – have captured the affordable rental and created a rental scarcity for low-income earners. We are the group who in practical terms not only prevent low-income whānau accessing affordable rental homes, but exacerbate the growing levels of homelessness.

I know it’s not right to talk about middle income earners moving into nice homes so that low income families can access their left over rundown rentals. I’m not proposing that we only find solutions for middle income earners. I am highlighting that part of the problem lies in the rental space and the short-circuiting of a cycle that has operated to minimise homelessness. Ignoring the hamstringing of middle-income earners prolongs the problem of homelessness, inaccessibility to suitable rentals, and the unequal share of power held by landlords.

 The key issues for renters

Some general themes that consistently arise for renters include:

  • Move in costs: These upfront costs usually involve –
  • 2 weeks rent (up to 4 weeks max) as bond;
  • 2 weeks rent in advance; and
  • 1 weeks rent plus GST as a letting fee.

For a middle-income family, the rent will often be around $500-700 per week. This amount of rent signifies these families could conceivably service a mortgage of their own. But even on good income, people don’t generally have over $3,000 just sitting around that makes it possible for them to move and given the rental costs, are not in any position to ‘save’ the 20 percent deposit needed to make them eligible for a mortgage.

For the record, I’m not interested in anecdotal policy qualifications of ‘I saved X while doing A, B and C, so everyone else is just lazy and stupid’. I mean it’s great that the system worked for those of you who think like that. You clearly had the privilege of some particularly favourable conditions. But by your own admission, it’s not working for the majority of other people. Evidenced by your view that people who don’t experience the world as you do are, um stupid and lazy.

  • Affordability:  Price is the key determinant for whether a renter will tenant a rental property. We know that rental prices vary for homes of similar size and quality and we understand that major price discrepancies are often associated with location. But this isn’t always the case, and despite some reports claiming rents are not increasing we renters are seeing spikes in prices on properties without any maintenance or upgrade. The reality is that a 3-bedroom hardy plank shit box with no upgrade since it was built in the 1970’s will now sting the renter over $500, a price that only a few years ago would get you a new build or renovated rental.
  • Quality:  Renters want and need a property that is warm, dry, safe and functional (i.e. no outstanding major repairs). What is on offer is often uninsulated (or depleted insulation), damp homes in need of some fundamental repairs (e.g. wiring, light fittings, plumbing, joinery) and upgraded furnishings such as carpets, curtains, wallpaper or paint.

 

  • Tenancy agreements: Tenancy agreements are an annoying but necessary part of being a tenant. They protect both the tenant and landlord. However, it is the landlord who will ultimately determine if the lease is for fixed or periodic tenancy. Being bound to a property for a fixed term and liable for rent if you find a more suitable property before your lease expires means that people cannot move unless they can afford to service two rental properties. Fixed term arrangements are intended to provide certainty, but they don’t they minimise the choices a renter can make.

 

Power to the tenants

rental policy

Requiring the letting fee to be payable by the Landlord not the tenant

One means of giving power back to tenants would be to amend the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 to require landlords to pay the letting fee not the tenant. See the Tenancy Tribunal website.

The work done by the letting agent, is for the benefit of the landlord. It is grossly unfair. A tenant should not have to pay a fee that deals with administrating a property that they do not own, for work that was undertaken prior to them obtaining quiet enjoyment of the property.  Landlords should not be allowed to pass on administrative costs to tenants. If they don’t want to advertise the property themselves, then that is their choice, not the tenants choice.

Implementing a rent cap and a star rating for rental properties

Like others, I have been thinking about the viability of rent cap, and the idea of a star rating for rental properties was brought to my attention in the weekend. Restricting the price and developing a robust rental property criterion gives rights back to tenants who spend a large proportion of their incomes paying rent, or in many cases, someone’s mortgage.

We know that rent is just too high and even those on good incomes are finding rentals increasingly unaffordable. While Christchurch is reported to be experiencing a reduction in rent prices, with some landlords offering a week’s free rent, Auckland and other parts of the country are ridiculously expensive and there are no signs of cooling off.

A rent cap could provide the right lever to keep people in homes that are affordable, and combined with a star rating could incentivise landlords to maintain and repair rental properties thereby improving the quality of homes in the rental market. It could be either a temporary or a permanent measure. It could include provisions for market or inflation adjustment.

I’m not going to speculate here about what the rent cap should be. However, the process might involve a price band where rental values are based on the star rating they receive from an independent property assessor.

The star rating could align with the housing Warrant of Fitness (WOF) standards. For example, a home that fully complied would receive a 5 star rating and be able to charge rent at the top end of the band. A property that only complied with part of the WOF standards and received a 1 star rating would only be able to charge at the lower end of the band. This would also give tenants an ability to negotiate the rent required to tenant the property.

I note that price bands should vary depending on location, and that should be a factor in establishing the price bands.

A groundrent for despicable landlords

A property that did not meet any WOF standards, could be deemed uninhabitable. If the landlord refused to meet those standards and left the property vacant, then the government could apply a groundrent to cover the social cost of taking a property out of the market. Doing so could help bring about stability, by ensuring vacant properties were not used to create an artificial scarcity that drives up house prices.  The intention would be to disincentivise landlords from simply land banking and encourage them to either repair the property to WOF standard, or sell it.

We need a real world solution for a real world problem not an ideological driven rant that narrows the field of investigation and subdues innovation.

Unseating Labour

By Ellipsister (Co-ed.)

If you had asked me last week whether the Māori Party could unseat the Labour Party in the Hauraki-Waikato electorate at the next general election in 2017, I’d have given a simple “No”. However, the election of Tukoroirangi Morgan as the new President of the Māori Party brings with it the potential for a new alliance with the Kiingitanga and the capacity to unseat Labour.

Although reported to be apolitical, there are certain advantages a political alliance could offer the Kiingitanga given politics is our primary vehicle for influencing policy that affects our people at the central government level.

There is no question that Nanaia Mahuta has served her constituents and her Kiingitanga whānau respectably as the Hauraki-Waikato electorate MP for the Labour Party. However, the contest will not be between the candidates who stand in the seats. The real contest will be behind closed doors, between Labour and the Māori Party. The outcome dependent on which of them can secure the support and influence of King Tuheitia.

It presents an awkward scenario for Labour given at the last reshuffle, Labour dropped Nanaia down the party list, despite her fierce leadership in securing 6 of the 7 Māori seats for the Labour Party and the loyalty the Kiingitanga have implicitly shown Labour in re-electing Nanaia for almost 20 years. In contrast, the Māori Party whose new President is also the trusted ear of the King will push hard for that support. If the Māori Party are successful, this could mean a seat that has resided with Labour for almost 20 years, could now hang in the balance. In TV terms, it is quite the game of thrones, of sorts.

The power of the Hillary Clinton promo vid

By Ellipsister (Co-Ed.)

Too often, we conceive of politics as the realm of adults. We think that somehow children are isolated from the narratives and juvenile behaviour of our aspiring or actual political representatives. The promo vid from the Hillary Clinton campaign (below) is incredibly powerful and serves as a sobering but clever reminder of how political tropes and uncensored diatribes can, as political scientist Bronwyn Hayward tweeted, have a legacy or morality impact for our children.

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit: I teeter between the two, landing for the most part on “leave”

By Ellipsister (Ed.)

The proliferation of reckons on Brexit espouse a range of views and angles. Some speak of the collapse of opportunity for future generations, others to a xenophobic tornado tearing through the neighbourhoods of the white working class. Others despair about the stupidity of a particular class of voters, or the youth who did not care enough to vote, while some focus their analyses on the economic damage Brexit could wreak on a global scale. Others romanticise about the liberation of the people from their oppressor, while others bemoan their lost freedom of movement.

Beneath the surface noise there is, however, real opportunity to deconstruct the issues and begin to formulate a deeper understanding about:

  • the conditions that trigger mass action in contemporary societies;
  • social division within mass actions; and
  • the risks, opportunities, implications and consequences that arise through referendum

This post does not cover those points specifically, but simply points out that there are always learning opportunities, no matter what the situation is in which they arise.

Part of the purpose for this special edition  was to see what some of our writers thought about Brexit and to get closer to seeing what we could learn – and perhaps even un-learn from Brexit and its associated campaigns, and to discern how we might ensure that humanity and empathy remain core components of our global social fabric.

Over the past week, I have seen a division here in NZ. A good proportion of Māori supporting the leave campaign, and a good proportion opposing it. Within that matrix, there were racists, there were separatists, and there were genuinely held beliefs about the importance of tino rangatiratanga – no matter who was exercising it.  There were ‘bounded freedom’ champions, freedom of movement advocates, those disgruntled that their newly acquired British passports would no longer be fit for purpose, there were those genuinely concerned about the harm the leave campaign would do to non-white immigrants currently resident in the UK, others concerned about trade and economics.

Where do I sit? I teeter between the two, landing for the most part on “leave”. I intensely abhor the sickening levels of hate and violence that gripped the “leave” campaign. I also convulse somewhat at the mischaracterisations of the EU that attempt to sell a story of a loving Nanny gently caressing her independent nation-states in her ever-loving arms. I refer to these as the neo-TINA’s –  deceptively wedded to the idea that we must concentrate wealth and power.

I support the right of any peoples to self-determination. To determine for themselves what laws or customs they want to govern their country and who will interpret those laws.  My views undoubtedly relate to my commitment to tino rangatiratanga for Māori here in Aotearoa New Zealand. But I need to make this very clear –my support for leave – on principle, is not informed by that hideous campaign of hate and violence. It is tied to my own nostalgia for the rightful return of Māori sovereignty.

I had to ask myself the question: How could I, in principle, support “remain”, when I would 100 percent support an opportunity for Māori to exit from a system that does not serve us well? And no I do not argue for total isolation, or the building of fences, or the expulsion of immigrants, or a return to pre-contact Aotearoa. I argue for the guaranteed right of tino rangatiratanga expressed in Te Tiriti o Waitangi to be formally recognised. To enable Māori the right to choose to exit from the laws that constrain our tikanga and those laws that continue to incarcerate, abuse, and dispossess our people. And as a friend recently said to me, ‘if there is a Union Jack on the flag that symbolises the country I live in, then yes, I do get to have an opinion about Brexit’. That’s not to say you have to like it.

Brexit: Are you Listening

By Nicola Eccleton

In some ways this whole Brexit thing is a bit of a relief really. I had begun to think that those who are not used to having a voice had stopped even trying to use it. The fact that such an important vote was used as a means to reject the establishment rather than determine whether membership of the European Union was useful is a bit of a fly in the ointment, but you can’t win them all.

What bothers me most is the condescension with which people are talking about those who voted leave – writing many off as racists whose vote is somehow less worthy than their own. If that’s what you think, you’re not listening. We all know that anti-immigrant, racist rhetoric thrives in situations where people are disaffected, disillusioned with the system, struggling to raise their kids and pay their rent. We know that the tendency towards looking inwards is a coping mechanism, and that a genuinely outward looking worldview is the purview of those who are lucky enough not to have to fight their own fires on a daily basis.

I read that the single biggest indicator of a leave vote was a low level of education. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to work out that democracy and low education do not function well together. Decision-making 101 requires that people who are asked to make decisions have the information required to do so. The reality that higher education in the West is much easier to attain for those with money allows the wealthy elite to strengthen their claim to being the legitimate holders of decision-making power.

As a student of politics I am fascinated by Brexit’s implications for multilateralism, the Northern Irish border and the Scottish independence movement. As someone who has spent much of their career working with people for whom the current system does not work, I despair that the sum total of the negative outcomes of such a decision will be placed squarely on the shoulders of those UK citizens who can least afford to be negatively affected.

This concentration of power, and ultimately wealth, is currently shaping politics throughout the Western World. Those who are looking to provide an alternative model of politics in the 21st Century need to come up with a version that not only speaks to those who are disaffected by the current system, but genuinely serves them.

The blame lies with those of us who continue to vote for parties and policies that convince us that labour market flexibility is more important than high employment, that education is a private good with solely individual rewards rather than a public good on which our entire system is contingent, and that those who are not well served by this system can ‘choose’ different outcomes. For these are the conditions under which we create space for those that play into the fears and insecurities of the disenfranchised, the Trumps and Farages who reiterate that the system doesn’t work and give people someone to blame.

And if you think that’s not what’s happening here, you’re not listening.